College football conference championship weekend is a spectacle filled with major matchups. It kicks off on Friday night with UNLV taking on Boise State. The winner of this Mountain West Championship game secures a Group of Five bid into the new 12-team College Football Playoff. Unraveling the Battle for the Mountain West Championship
UNLV-Boise State: A Rematch of Last Year's Thriller
Last year in Las Vegas, Boise State emerged victorious over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game with a score of 44-20. This season, they faced off again in a thrilling nationally televised Friday night game, with Boise State winning 29-24. Boise State, with a record of 11-1 in conference play, is a force to be reckoned with. UNLV, on the other hand, stands at 10-2 with a 6-1 conference record. Under the leadership of second-year head coach Barry Odom, the UNLV Rebels have been on a roll, winning 6 out of their 7 road games, including victories over Big 12 teams Kansas and Houston.Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports provides additional matchups and advance stats for this crucial game. In the week 9 showdown in Las Vegas, Boise State beat UNLV 29-24. The difference in that game was an interception thrown by UNLV's quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams at the end of the first half. This set up Boise State with a first-and-goal at the 7-yard line with 1:34 left in the half, which they converted into 7 points. Despite having more total yards (398 to 368), UNLV averaged more yards per play (6.6 yppl to 5.7 yppl).However, UNLV is just as strong as Boise State from the line of scrimmage. With Williams at quarterback, UNLV's offense has been 0.7 yppl better than average, while Boise's offense rates at 0.8 yppl better than average. The Rebels' defense is 0.5 yppl better than average, while the Broncos' stop unit is just 0.1 yppl better. Overall, UNLV has a 0.3 yppl edge. But due to their tendency to produce big plays, they run fewer plays than their opponents.According to my math model, Boise is projected to run 10 more plays from the line of scrimmage and gain 437 yards at 6.25 yards per play. UNLV is projected at 369 yards at 6.17 yppl. The Rebels have elite special teams, ranking 4th best in the nation in net starting field position differential. Overall, the math favors Boise by just 1 point with a total of 58.6 points, considering the expected good weather.In the October game between Boise State and UNLV, I bet on Boise State RB Jeanty under 197.5 rushing yards. He finished with 128 rushing yards and 1 touchdown on 33 carries, getting shut down in the first half by UNLV's top-15 run defense. Now, in the Mountain West Championship game, his over/under rushing yards is 169.5. While he'll be relied upon to carry the load and lead Boise State to a 12th straight home win and the Mountain West title, I'm predicting less rushing yards from Broncos QB Maddux Madsen in the freezing temperatures of Boise, ID on the blue turf.
UNLV-Boise State Props: Betting Insights
For Boise State QB Maddux Madsen, the over/under for passing yards is 218.5, and for rushing yards, it's 15.5. For UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams, the over/under for passing yards is 183.5, and for rushing yards, it's 60.5. For Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, the over/under for rushing yards is 169.5. For UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas, the over/under for rushing yards is 65.5. For Boise State WR Cameron Camper, the over/under for receiving yards is 59.5. For Boise State WR Latrell Caples, the over/under for receiving yards is 41.5. For Boise State TE Matt Lauter, the over/under for receiving yards is 36.5. And for UNLV WR Ricky White, the over/under for receiving yards is 83.5. Additionally, for UNLV WR Jacob De Jesus, the over/under for receiving yards is 32.5.A prop bet to consider is Boise State QB Madsen under 15.5 rushing yards.
Mountain West Awards: Recognizing Excellence
This week, the Mountain West All-Conference awards were announced. Boise State junior RB Ashton Jeanty was voted Offensive Player of the Year for the second straight season. He leads the FBS in all-purpose yards (199.17), rushing touchdowns (28), rushing yards (2,288), rushing yards per game (190.7), total points scored (174), and total touchdowns (29). He is also second in rush yards per carry (7.33) and scoring (14.5). When asked if this Friday night's Mountain West championship game will be his last in a Boise State jersey on the iconic blue turf, Jeanty paused and simply said, "Yes, I do." He is expected to be a first-round NFL pick in next April's draft.UNLV senior LB Jackson Woodard was voted Defensive Player of the Year. His 114 total tackles are top 20 in the FBS, and he ranked 6th in FBS with 17 tackles for loss. UNLV senior WR Ricky White III was also named 1st team All-Mountain West and Special Teams Player of the Year, leading the FBS with a school record four blocked punts this season.UNLV kicker Caden Chittenden was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year and 1st team All Mountain West. His 25 made field goals rank No. 2 in the FBS. Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson was named Mountain West Coach of the Year, a title that UNLV coach Barry Odom won last season. Other Boise State 1st team All-Mountain West players include TE Matt Lauter, OL Kage Casey and Ben Dooley, DL Ahmed Hassanein and Jayden Virgin-Morgan, LB Marco Notarainni. UNLV OL Tiger Shanks, DB Jalen Catalon, and punt returner Jacob De Jesus were also named 1st team, while kickoff returner Jacob De Jesus was named 2nd team. UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams was 2nd team QB after taking over as the starter in the Rebels' fourth game of the season. Other 2nd team All-Conference players include UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas, OL Jalen St. John, DL Antonio Doyle, DB Johnathan Baldwin, and Boise State DB Seyi Oladipo and DL Braxton Fely. Both teams placed five other players on the Honorable Mention team, including Boise State QB Maddux Madsen.Follow all the matchups, odds, and watch and wager action as the popularity of college football and sports betting continues to grow, providing fans with more excitement and engagement in the games. You can bet on it.
